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Chances of winning Ohio Senate seat tilt in Vance’s favor

Candidates for Ohio Senate J.D. Vance and Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio)
Associated Press/Francois Mori

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(NewsNation) — The Senate race in Ohio between Republican J.D. Vance and Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has shifted from a “toss up” to one that will “lean” in Vance’s favor, according to new polling data from Decision Desk HQ.

Decision Desk HQ gives Vance a 65.7% chance of beating Ryan in November’s midterm elections, a 5% change in Vance’s favor compared to polling data released one week ago.

A majority of polls, however, give Ryan a slight edge over Vance in the election. Ryan has a 0.6% advantage in Decision Desk HQ’s average polling data.

The latest poll cited by Decision Desk HQ came from the right-leaning polling firm Cygnal, which showed Vance as having a 1.9% advantage over Ryan.

Vance’s chances of winning Ohio are inflated by the state’s overall shift toward the right, which Decision Desk HQ scores as a +6 partisan lean.

All of Decision Desk HQ’s data on the Ohio Senate race was collected prior to a debate between Ryan and Vance held Monday.

The Ohio Senate seat is a pivotal one for Republicans, who hope to regain control of both the House and Senate in November. Decision Desk HQ still gives Democrats a 65.8% chance of controlling the Senate, on a likely 50-50 seat split with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as a tiebreaker.

Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker gained some ground on Democrat Raphael Warnock, but Walker still trails Warnock, according to Decision Desk HQ’s data.

Warnock is given a 73.9% chance to win the election by Decision Desk HQ and leads Walker by an average of 3.4% in polls.

But recent polling gains by Walker have increased his chances of winning the election from 19.5% to 26.1% in the past week, according to Decision Desk HQ. The race has shifted from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”


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