Poll adviser: ‘Polling had a miss this time’

Elections 2022

(NewsNation) — Scott Tranter, an investor and adviser to Decision Desk HQ, admits polling was off a day after the midterm Election Day results.

“Well, it certainly looks like polling had a miss this time and it wasn’t missing Republicans, it was missing the Democrats, which is why we saw Fetterman win in Pennsylvania,” Tranter said, speaking on NewsNation’s “Rush Hour” on Wednesday.

Mehmet Oz was favored at 59.4% to 40.6% to win over John Fetterman; Fetterman won the election by 50.6% to 46.9%.

Pennsylvania’s Senate race was not the only one miscalculated.

Decision Desk HQ’s forecast of Arizona’s Senate race had incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly winning 66.2% to 33.8% over Blake Masters. As of Wednesday evening, the race was as tight as 51% to 46.6%. While Kelly is still favored, the race has not yet been called.

Similarly, in Nevada’s Senate race, Decision Desk HQ predicted Republican Adam Laxalt would win by a 55.5% to 44.5% margin over Catherine Cortez Masto. As of Wednesday night, the vote was as close as 49.98% to 47.18% favoring Laxalt.

Overall, the Decision Desk HQ forecast model predicted Republicans having a 57.2% chance of controlling the Senate and a 79% chance to win control of the House after the midterms.

The races have been closer than estimated, and the “red wave” political analysts and polls predicted has not come to fruition.

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