Midterm Elections: Which seats will flip parties?


(NewsNation) — There’s only 35 days until the midterms, and voters have their eyes on tough races in a number of states.

Currently, Democrats have a majority in a 50-50 Senate, according to the Hill, and are trying to maintain it, while Republicans attempt to regain control.

Some House and Senate races could determine the balance of power in Congress — and in some states, whether the seat is Democrat or Republican could change with this election.

In a NewsNation/DecisionDesk HQ poll, those surveyed gave Democrats a 63% chance of holding on to the Senate, while giving Republicans a 78% chance at retaking the House. The poll also showed 66.22% of people were “a great deal” more motivated to vote in the 2022 midterm elections than last November.

These are some of the races that are expected to flip, according to recent polling.

Nevada Senate race

Former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) has a slight edge over Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto. A new Nevada Independent/OH Predictive Insights poll shows Laxalt leads Cortez Masto by 2 points (45% to 43%). The Hill has previously put Laxalt at a 1-point lead over his opponent.

Earlier in the year, though, The Hill said, it was Cortez Masto leading. Cortez Masto, who defeated Joe Heck in 2016 and is also a former Nevada attorney general, is the first Latina senator.

Pennsylvania Senate race

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, is facing Republican television personality Mehmet Oz in the race to see who will replace Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.

A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll shows Fetterman has a 6% lead over Oz — but as The Hill points out, that gap is narrowing.

Fetterman had a 9-point from the same poll in June, the news outlet said.

The race between the two men has gotten brutal: Fetterman has faced a barrage of attacks from Oz over his health after suffering a stroke in May, and what his opponent calls “debate hesitation.” Fetterman has hit back, saying he knew politics could be nasty, but he could “never imagine ridiculing someone for their health challenges.” As previously reported by NewsNation, Fetterman committed to a single debate against Oz in October.

California 27th House district

The race between Republican incumbent Mike Garcia and Christy Smith, a Democrat, is a “toss-up,” according to the L.A. Times. This race is a rematch between the two — in 2020, Garcia beat out Smith by 333 votes, which was the third-closest House race that year.

The newspaper states that the northern Los Angeles 27th district is viewed as one of “Democrats’ best pickup opportunities in the nation.” Democrats have a 12% advantage among registered voters in the district with 41.5%, compared to Republicans’ 29.5%.

Illinois 13th House district

Nikki Budzinski is going against Regan Deering in the race for the Illinois 13th House District. Neither are incumbents.

Inside Elections, a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, shows that race leans democratic. The 13th district seat is currently occupied by a Republican, Rodney Davis, who lost his House primary in Illinois after redistricting pitted him against another member of the GOP, Mary Miller, who was backed by Trump, according to NBC.

Pennsylvania 7th House district

Republican challenger Lisa Scheller has a four-point advantage against Democratic incumbent Susan Wild, a poll by Politics Pennsylvania found, while Politico called the race a toss-up in May.

iowa 3rd house district

Incumbent Cindy Axne is battling Republican state Sen. Zach Nunn for Iowa’s third district. National analysts have pegged their race as “one of the most competitive in the country,” according to the Des Moines Register. A poll by the Moore Information Group from Sept. 30 showed Nunn leading 45% to 44%. Nunn also leads among Independent or non-partsian voters.

Generally, the political environment in this district does favor Republicans. As the Des Moines Register points out, Axne is the lone Democrat from Iowa in Washington D.C.

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